El Nino phenomenon fuels global food supply fears
Source: Agencies |
August 11, 2012, Saturday
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JAPAN'S official weather bureau said yesterday there are strong signs the El Nino weather phenomenon has emerged and will last until winter, adding to fears about global food supplies already hit by drought and soaring prices.
Corn prices have surged more than 60 percent in the past two months as the US reels from the worst drought in 56 years. Global soy supplies are also tight after a drought slashed South American soy production.
Adding to worries, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization said on Thursday the world was closer to a repeat of a 2008 food crisis due to rising prices.
El Nino-triggered drought can cause widespread disruption to crops in Australia, parts of Africa, Southeast Asia and India, but can bring rain to other parts of the globe.
Latest data suggested the El Nino phenomenon had emerged, the Japan Meteorological Agency said, referring to conditions in the equatorial Pacific.
"The chances are high that the El Nino phenomenon will be maintained until the winter," the agency said in a statement.
El Nino is a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific that occurs every four to 12 years. It is the opposite of the very closely related La Nina pattern, which often triggers floods in Australia and parts of Asia. Intense back-to-back La Nina episodes occurred during 2010-12.
The US Climate Prediction Center, part of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, also warned on Thursday that an El Nino was almost certain to occur over the next two months.
The last severe El Nino in 1998 caused drought in Australia and Southeast Asia, withering crops and triggering forest fires.
El Nino can also bring warmer, wetter winters in Japan and parts of North America, but any rains might be too late for the American corn crop.
A growing worry is the impact on India, where lower than average monsoon rain has threatened cereal and pulses production, although it has rained more in the past week.
The worry about drought, though, remains because of the erratic nature of this year's monsoon and because El Nino can cause drier weather over much of the country during the northern hemisphere summer.
Corn prices have surged more than 60 percent in the past two months as the US reels from the worst drought in 56 years. Global soy supplies are also tight after a drought slashed South American soy production.
Adding to worries, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization said on Thursday the world was closer to a repeat of a 2008 food crisis due to rising prices.
El Nino-triggered drought can cause widespread disruption to crops in Australia, parts of Africa, Southeast Asia and India, but can bring rain to other parts of the globe.
Latest data suggested the El Nino phenomenon had emerged, the Japan Meteorological Agency said, referring to conditions in the equatorial Pacific.
"The chances are high that the El Nino phenomenon will be maintained until the winter," the agency said in a statement.
El Nino is a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific that occurs every four to 12 years. It is the opposite of the very closely related La Nina pattern, which often triggers floods in Australia and parts of Asia. Intense back-to-back La Nina episodes occurred during 2010-12.
The US Climate Prediction Center, part of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, also warned on Thursday that an El Nino was almost certain to occur over the next two months.
The last severe El Nino in 1998 caused drought in Australia and Southeast Asia, withering crops and triggering forest fires.
El Nino can also bring warmer, wetter winters in Japan and parts of North America, but any rains might be too late for the American corn crop.
A growing worry is the impact on India, where lower than average monsoon rain has threatened cereal and pulses production, although it has rained more in the past week.
The worry about drought, though, remains because of the erratic nature of this year's monsoon and because El Nino can cause drier weather over much of the country during the northern hemisphere summer.
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