Emissions 'putting climate on knife edge'
Source: Agencies |
October 25, 2011, Tuesday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
GLOBAL temperature rise could exceed "safe" levels in some parts of the world in many of our lifetimes if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, a research paper published in the journal Nature have warned.
A study by academics at the English universities of Reading and Oxford, the UK's Meteorological Office Hadley Centre and the Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, said: "Certain levels of climate change are very likely within the lifetimes of many people living, unless emissions of greenhouse gases are substantially reduced.
"Large parts of Eurasia, north Africa and Canada could experience individual five-year average temperatures that exceed the 2 degree Celsius threshold by 2030 - a timescale that is not so distant."
Two years ago, industrialized nations set a 2 degrees warming limit as the maximum to avoid dangerous climate change, including more floods, droughts and rising seas, while some experts said a 1.5 degrees limit would be safer.
It is widely agreed among scientists that global pledges for curbing greenhouse gas emissions are so far not strong enough to prevent "dangerous" climate change.
Next month, nations will meet at the UN climate summit in Durban, South Africa, where a binding pact to reduce emissions looks unlikely. A global deal might not emerge until 2014 or 2015.
The study found most of the world's land surface is likely to experience five-year average temperatures that exceed 2 degrees above preindustrial levels by 2060.
Even if global temperature rises are kept under 2 degrees, some regions will not escape warming and the likelihood of extreme events, such as heatwaves, is still high in even a marginally warmer world.
A study by academics at the English universities of Reading and Oxford, the UK's Meteorological Office Hadley Centre and the Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, said: "Certain levels of climate change are very likely within the lifetimes of many people living, unless emissions of greenhouse gases are substantially reduced.
"Large parts of Eurasia, north Africa and Canada could experience individual five-year average temperatures that exceed the 2 degree Celsius threshold by 2030 - a timescale that is not so distant."
Two years ago, industrialized nations set a 2 degrees warming limit as the maximum to avoid dangerous climate change, including more floods, droughts and rising seas, while some experts said a 1.5 degrees limit would be safer.
It is widely agreed among scientists that global pledges for curbing greenhouse gas emissions are so far not strong enough to prevent "dangerous" climate change.
Next month, nations will meet at the UN climate summit in Durban, South Africa, where a binding pact to reduce emissions looks unlikely. A global deal might not emerge until 2014 or 2015.
The study found most of the world's land surface is likely to experience five-year average temperatures that exceed 2 degrees above preindustrial levels by 2060.
Even if global temperature rises are kept under 2 degrees, some regions will not escape warming and the likelihood of extreme events, such as heatwaves, is still high in even a marginally warmer world.
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