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'Extremely likely’ that warming man-made
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Scientists can now say with extreme confidence that human activity is the dominant cause of the global warming observed since the 1950s, a new report by an international scientific group said yesterday.
Calling man-made warming “extremely likely,” the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used the strongest words yet on the issue as it adopted its assessment on the state of the climate system.
In its previous assessment, in 2007, the UN-sponsored panel said it was “very likely” global warming was man-made.
One of the most controversial subjects in the report was how to deal with a purported slowdown in warming in the past 15 years. Skeptics say this “hiatus” casts doubt on the scientific consensus on climate change.
Many governments had objections over how the issue was treated in earlier drafts and some had called for it to be deleted altogether.
In the end, the IPCC made only a brief mention of the issue in the summary for policymakers, stressing that short-term records are sensitive to natural variability and don’t in general reflect long-term trends.
“An old rule says that climate-relevant trends should not be calculated for periods less than around 30 years,” said Thomas Stocker, co-chair of the group that wrote the report.
Stocker said there wasn’t enough literature on “this emerging question.”
The IPCC said evidence of climate change has grown, thanks to more and better observations, a clearer understanding of the climate system and improved models to analyze the impact of rising temperatures.
“Our assessment of the science finds that the atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amount of snow and ice has diminished, the global mean sea level has risen and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased,” said Qin Dahe, co-chair of the working group that wrote the report.
The full 2,000-page report isn’t released until Monday, but the summary for policymakers with the key findings was published yesterday.
The IPCC raised its projections of the rise in sea levels to 26-82 centimeters by the end of the century, from 18-59 centimeters previously.
IPCC assessments are important because they form the scientific basis of UN negotiations on a new climate deal.
“There are few surprises in this report but the increase in the confidence around many observations just validates what we are seeing happening around us,” said Samantha Smith, of the World Wildlife Fund.
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