Fashion trend shifts as denim dominance comes under threat
Source: Agencies |
August 29, 2010, Sunday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
THE words sounded ominous, especially coming from a jeans brand: "We are basically at the end of the denim dominance."
But Guess co-founder, Maurice Marciano, who broke the news in a conference call this week, said the change would mean more sales, not less.
The fashion cycle is turning yet again, and next spring it's spinning toward a greater emphasis on other fabrics. Khaki, corduroy and twill pants are expected to knock premium denim off its pedestal and lure fickle customers.
Analysts believe the market has overreacted. Millions of people around the world will continue to buy denim, whether Wrangler or Lee or trendier styles from Gap and American Eagle Outfitters.
Jeans sales grew 4 percent to US$13.7 billion in the US in the past 12 months, according to research firm NPD Group.
What has changed is the softening of the market at the high end, spurred by more cautious consumers and a move to simpler, less adorned denim. But these pricier, more coveted brands now have the opportunity to diversify.
"The Street is overreacting and assuming denim is disappearing," said Brean Murray Carret analyst Eric Beder. "It's not a huge game-changing thing. This is more of a fashion trend shift than (affecting) the man who buys his pair of jeans every year."
Denim has lorded over contemporary fashion since midway through the decade, and its popularity has permeated all price and trend segments, from US$200 jeans to US$20 ones.
But the number of women's jeans that cost more than US$50 is down 2 percent in the past year, NPD said.
NPD's Marshal Cohen says Marciano's pronouncement is more about the need for premium denim players to diversify than the love affair with denim being over.
"The brands are trying to figure out how to de-emphasize denim because the denim pie isn't getting bigger and there's just as many players."
Diversifying has been an uphill battle in the past for many premium denim players, who saw their jeans fly off shelves but their non-denim fashions passed over.
But Guess co-founder, Maurice Marciano, who broke the news in a conference call this week, said the change would mean more sales, not less.
The fashion cycle is turning yet again, and next spring it's spinning toward a greater emphasis on other fabrics. Khaki, corduroy and twill pants are expected to knock premium denim off its pedestal and lure fickle customers.
Analysts believe the market has overreacted. Millions of people around the world will continue to buy denim, whether Wrangler or Lee or trendier styles from Gap and American Eagle Outfitters.
Jeans sales grew 4 percent to US$13.7 billion in the US in the past 12 months, according to research firm NPD Group.
What has changed is the softening of the market at the high end, spurred by more cautious consumers and a move to simpler, less adorned denim. But these pricier, more coveted brands now have the opportunity to diversify.
"The Street is overreacting and assuming denim is disappearing," said Brean Murray Carret analyst Eric Beder. "It's not a huge game-changing thing. This is more of a fashion trend shift than (affecting) the man who buys his pair of jeans every year."
Denim has lorded over contemporary fashion since midway through the decade, and its popularity has permeated all price and trend segments, from US$200 jeans to US$20 ones.
But the number of women's jeans that cost more than US$50 is down 2 percent in the past year, NPD said.
NPD's Marshal Cohen says Marciano's pronouncement is more about the need for premium denim players to diversify than the love affair with denim being over.
"The brands are trying to figure out how to de-emphasize denim because the denim pie isn't getting bigger and there's just as many players."
Diversifying has been an uphill battle in the past for many premium denim players, who saw their jeans fly off shelves but their non-denim fashions passed over.
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