Greenland less vulnerable to runaway melt, scientists say
Source: Agencies |
January 25, 2013, Friday
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GREENLAND is less vulnerable than expected to a runaway melt that would drive up world sea levels, according to scientists who found only a quarter of the ice sheet thawed in a warm period more than 100,000 years ago.
The study, involving 300 experts from 14 nations, implied Antarctica at the other end of the planet would contribute at least as much or more to the kind of sea level rise that threatens coasts and cities from Mumbai to Miami.
Climate scientists are struggling to understand the risks of a melt of the vast ice stores of Greenland and Antarctica to help plan coastal protection. Sea levels rose about 17 centimeters in the past century and the rate has quickened.
Examination of ice from a 2.5km deep ice core in northwest Greenland indicated its ice sheet lost only about 400 meters in thickness in the early part of the Eemian, a warm period from about 130,000 to 115,000 years ago.
They estimated it lost about a quarter of its ice overall, according to a study published in yesterday's edition of the journal Nature.
"The volume of ice lost from the Greenland ice sheet was more moderate than many had expected," said lead author Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, a professor at the University of Copenhagen.
Some past studies have suggested Greenland may be poised for an irreversible melt due to climate change, blamed by a UN panel of experts on use of fossil fuels in nations led by China, the United States, India and Russia.
The limited size of the melt was also a surprise because the scientists found Eemian temperatures, inferred from chemicals in air bubbles trapped in the ice, were higher than expected at 8 degrees Celsius above current levels.
"We'll probably reach the Eemian temperatures within the next 100 years," Dahl-Jensen said. The Arctic region is warming at one of the fastest rates on the planet; global warming of 2 or 3 degrees Celsius might trigger an 8 degrees Celsius rise in Greenland.
The United Nations panel of climate scientists has said that sea levels may rise by between 18 and 59 centimeters this century. It could be more if a thaw of Greenland or Antarctica speeds up. Elsewhere, it expects more floods, droughts and heat waves.
And there are already signs of Eemian-style conditions.
The study, involving 300 experts from 14 nations, implied Antarctica at the other end of the planet would contribute at least as much or more to the kind of sea level rise that threatens coasts and cities from Mumbai to Miami.
Climate scientists are struggling to understand the risks of a melt of the vast ice stores of Greenland and Antarctica to help plan coastal protection. Sea levels rose about 17 centimeters in the past century and the rate has quickened.
Examination of ice from a 2.5km deep ice core in northwest Greenland indicated its ice sheet lost only about 400 meters in thickness in the early part of the Eemian, a warm period from about 130,000 to 115,000 years ago.
They estimated it lost about a quarter of its ice overall, according to a study published in yesterday's edition of the journal Nature.
"The volume of ice lost from the Greenland ice sheet was more moderate than many had expected," said lead author Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, a professor at the University of Copenhagen.
Some past studies have suggested Greenland may be poised for an irreversible melt due to climate change, blamed by a UN panel of experts on use of fossil fuels in nations led by China, the United States, India and Russia.
The limited size of the melt was also a surprise because the scientists found Eemian temperatures, inferred from chemicals in air bubbles trapped in the ice, were higher than expected at 8 degrees Celsius above current levels.
"We'll probably reach the Eemian temperatures within the next 100 years," Dahl-Jensen said. The Arctic region is warming at one of the fastest rates on the planet; global warming of 2 or 3 degrees Celsius might trigger an 8 degrees Celsius rise in Greenland.
The United Nations panel of climate scientists has said that sea levels may rise by between 18 and 59 centimeters this century. It could be more if a thaw of Greenland or Antarctica speeds up. Elsewhere, it expects more floods, droughts and heat waves.
And there are already signs of Eemian-style conditions.
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