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Japan PM's party may miss election goal by far
Source: Agencies |
July 9, 2010, Friday
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JAPAN'S ruling Democratic Party could fall far short of Prime Minister Naoto Kan's target in Sunday's election, media polls showed, putting the premier's job at risk and threatening to stall steps to curb a big public debt.
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which took power last year, will almost certainly run the government regardless of the July 11 upper house election result because it controls the powerful lower house. But it needs a majority in the upper chamber to enact laws and implement policies smoothly.
Kan, who took over as Japan's fifth prime minister in three years last month, has put fiscal reform at the centre of the campaign, including a possible doubling of the 5 percent sales tax to curb a public debt already nearly twice the size of GDP.
Surveys by the Nikkei, Yomiuri and Asahi newspapers showed on Friday that the DPJ is likely to win around 50 seats or fewer out of the 121 up for grabs in the 242-member chamber, short of Kan's target of 54 seats that his party has up for grabs in the vote.
That would deprive the DPJ and its tiny coalition partner, the pro-spending People's New Party, of a majority in the upper house and force the Democrats to seek new allies, hampering the government's ability to forge ahead with fiscal reform.
A showing of under 50 seats for the DPJ would also leave Kan vulnerable to a challenge from within his party ahead of a DPJ leadership vote set for September, experts say.
WIDE RANGE, MANY UNDECIDED
The Asahi newspaper said the DPJ could win fewer than 50 seats, but gave a range of between 42 and 57 seats, a reflection of the close races in many districts. The paper also said the election outcome could shift since 30 percent to 40 percent of voters were still undecided.
Possible allies to the DPJ include the small pro-reform Your Party and the Buddhist-backed New Komeito, although the leaders of both parties have said they don't plan to help out. The surveys showed both those parties could get around 10 seats.
The upper house can block bills other than treaties and budgets and the DPJ-led coalition lacks the two-thirds lower house majority that would enable it to override the upper chamber.
Support for the DPJ rebounded after Kan, a 63-year-old former grassroots activist, took over from his unpopular predecessor in June, but has receded since he floated the possible sales tax hike.
Sixty-three percent of voters in the Asahi survey said they were not happy with the way Kan has explained the need for a sales tax rise.
The Democrats' lead over the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) shrank, with 32 percent of respondents to the Nikkei survey planning to vote for the DPJ -- down three points -- against 22 percent for the LDP and 11 percent for the Your Party.
Voter support for Kan's government also fell five points to 45 percent in the Nikkei poll, a 23 percent drop from his initial rating after taking office last month.
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which took power last year, will almost certainly run the government regardless of the July 11 upper house election result because it controls the powerful lower house. But it needs a majority in the upper chamber to enact laws and implement policies smoothly.
Kan, who took over as Japan's fifth prime minister in three years last month, has put fiscal reform at the centre of the campaign, including a possible doubling of the 5 percent sales tax to curb a public debt already nearly twice the size of GDP.
Surveys by the Nikkei, Yomiuri and Asahi newspapers showed on Friday that the DPJ is likely to win around 50 seats or fewer out of the 121 up for grabs in the 242-member chamber, short of Kan's target of 54 seats that his party has up for grabs in the vote.
That would deprive the DPJ and its tiny coalition partner, the pro-spending People's New Party, of a majority in the upper house and force the Democrats to seek new allies, hampering the government's ability to forge ahead with fiscal reform.
A showing of under 50 seats for the DPJ would also leave Kan vulnerable to a challenge from within his party ahead of a DPJ leadership vote set for September, experts say.
WIDE RANGE, MANY UNDECIDED
The Asahi newspaper said the DPJ could win fewer than 50 seats, but gave a range of between 42 and 57 seats, a reflection of the close races in many districts. The paper also said the election outcome could shift since 30 percent to 40 percent of voters were still undecided.
Possible allies to the DPJ include the small pro-reform Your Party and the Buddhist-backed New Komeito, although the leaders of both parties have said they don't plan to help out. The surveys showed both those parties could get around 10 seats.
The upper house can block bills other than treaties and budgets and the DPJ-led coalition lacks the two-thirds lower house majority that would enable it to override the upper chamber.
Support for the DPJ rebounded after Kan, a 63-year-old former grassroots activist, took over from his unpopular predecessor in June, but has receded since he floated the possible sales tax hike.
Sixty-three percent of voters in the Asahi survey said they were not happy with the way Kan has explained the need for a sales tax rise.
The Democrats' lead over the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) shrank, with 32 percent of respondents to the Nikkei survey planning to vote for the DPJ -- down three points -- against 22 percent for the LDP and 11 percent for the Your Party.
Voter support for Kan's government also fell five points to 45 percent in the Nikkei poll, a 23 percent drop from his initial rating after taking office last month.
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