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December 17, 2011

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Obama in jeopardy, poll shows

US President Barack Obama's standing in a new Associated Press-GFK poll suggests he could be in jeopardy of losing his re-election bid in November 2012, even as the survey shows the public's outlook on the economy is improving.

Obama's re-election prospects are essentially a 50-50 proposition, according to the poll. It found that most Americans say the president deserves to be voted out of office even though they have concerns about the Republican alternatives.

The Republican candidates held their last debate on Thursday before the January 3 Iowa caucuses lead off the battle for the nomination to challenge Obama. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich looks to maintain his recent lead while former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and other rivals work to tear him down.

The poll found Americans were evenly divided over whether they expect Obama to be re-elected next year.

For the first time, the poll found that a majority of adults, 52 percent, said Obama should be voted out of office while 43 percent said he deserves another term. The numbers mark a reversal since last May, when 53 percent said Obama should be re-elected while 43 percent said he didn't deserve four more years.

Obama's overall job approval stands at a new low, with 44 percent approving and 54 percent disapproving.

Heading into his re-election campaign, the president faces a conflicted public. It does not support his steering of the economy, the most dominant issue for Americans, or his overhaul of health care, one of his signature accomplishments, but it also is grappling with whether to replace him with Romney or Gingrich.

Romney was still campaigning in Iowa yesterday as he looked to halt Gingrich's momentum. He planned a campaign swing through South Carolina later in the day, where he was picking up the endorsement of Governor Nikki Haley.

Gingrich was returning to Washington after comparing himself to Ronald Reagan in Thursday's debate and insisting he can defeat Obama in 2012. He added that it was laughable for his rivals to challenge his conservative credentials.

Despite the soft level of support, many are uncertain whether a Republican president would be a better choice. Asked whom they would support next November, 47 percent of adults favored Obama and 46 percent Romney.

Against Gingrich, Obama holds a solid 51-42 advantage.

The poll was conducted on December 8-12 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The wild card in the Republican race is Texas Congressman Ron Paul, with the small-government libertarian surpassing Romney in some polls of Iowa voters.

In Thursday's debate, Paul said the US has no legitimate claim to block Iran from developing a nuclear weapon and he expressed his anti-war views.

 

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