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February 16, 2016

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Scalia’s death ups stakes in US presidential poll

THE unexpected death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, and the immediate declaration from Republicans that the next president should nominate his replacement, adds even more weight to the decision voters will make in November’s general election.

Candidates in both parties moved quickly to reframe the election as a referendum on the nine-member high court’s future.

“Two branches of government hang in the balance, not just the presidency, but the Supreme Court,” Texas Senator Ted Cruz said in the latest Republican debate, held in South Carolina just hours after word came out on Saturday about the death of Scalia, a hero of conservatives during his nearly 30 years on the Supreme Court. “If we get this wrong, if we nominate the wrong candidate, the Second Amendment, life, marriage, religious liberty, every one of those hangs in the balance.”

Democrat Hillary Clinton painted a similarly stark scenario.

“If any of us needed a reminder of just how important it is to take back the United States Senate and hold onto the White House, just look at the Supreme Court,” Clinton said.

Clinton has said the court’s makeup is crucial to preserving abortion rights and the legality of gay marriage nationwide. The court now is divided between four liberal and four typically conservative justices.

Obama pledged to nominate a replacement in “due time,” even after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said that responsibility should fall to the winner of the 2016 election.

Obama could try to force a nominee through the Senate this year. Even if that were to happen, a confirmation vote probably would be months away, leaving the Supreme Court in the center of the campaign during the nomination process.

Former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, who served in the Cabinet of President George W. Bush, said yesterday that Obama has an obligation to select a replacement for Scalia, telling CNN that “the president has to do his job.” Gonzales said that the Senate, likewise, has a role and should weigh Obama’s choice “on its own calendar.”

With three other justices over the age of 75, the next president could have other vacancies during his or her tenure, even if Obama fills Scalia’s seat.

It’s unclear how the new focus on the Supreme Court might affect voters’ decisions in an election that has seen unconventional candidates such as Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders challenge their parties’ establishments.

Sanders easily defeated Clinton in the New Hampshire primary and finished a close second in the Iowa caucuses. Trying to counter his momentum, Clinton has urged voters to consider which candidate is most electable in November.

With the balance of the Supreme Court now potentially on the line, Clinton and her allies are certain to increase their warnings about the risk of sending a self-declared democratic socialist to face a Republican in the fall.

Among Republicans, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Ohio Governor John Kasich are casting themselves as candidates who could appeal to swing voters in the general election and put the Republicans in position to guide the next court nominations.




 

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