Space junk to up mission costs
Source: Agencies |
November 5, 2009, Thursday
|
Print Edition
Print Edition
A GROWING storm of debris flying around in space is dramatically increasing the risk of orbital crashes, and steps to avoid them will add greatly to the costs of future space flights, British space experts say.
Their study into the future of space travel predicts that "close encounters" in orbit will rise by 50 percent in the next 10 years and by 250 percent by 2059 to more than 50,000 a week.
"The time to act is now, before the situation gets too difficult to control," said Hugh Lewis of the University of Southampton's school of engineering science, who led the study. "The number of objects in orbit is going to go up, and there will be impacts from that."
The US military said on Tuesday that it is tracking 800 satellites on a daily basis for possible collisions and expects to be able to track 500 more by the year's end.
Lewis's team looked back to the beginning of the space age, when the Soviet Union launched Sputnik 1 in 1957, to analyze how cluttered space has become since then and how much more so it is likely to be in future.
While the number of close encounters - defined as objects passing within 5 kilometers of each other - is set to rise sharply, Lewis said the main effect would not necessarily be an increase in crashes, but in the number and cost of steps to avoid them. His study estimated that satellite operators will have to make five times as many collision avoidance moves in 2059 as they will in 2019.
Lewis was unable to put a price on avoidance steps, but said they'd have to be high priorities in future space budgets.
Space junk - or "orbital debris" - can take many forms, ranging from used-up parts and defunct satellites, to fragments of space vehicles, particles from explosions and even flakes of paint and dust.
Their study into the future of space travel predicts that "close encounters" in orbit will rise by 50 percent in the next 10 years and by 250 percent by 2059 to more than 50,000 a week.
"The time to act is now, before the situation gets too difficult to control," said Hugh Lewis of the University of Southampton's school of engineering science, who led the study. "The number of objects in orbit is going to go up, and there will be impacts from that."
The US military said on Tuesday that it is tracking 800 satellites on a daily basis for possible collisions and expects to be able to track 500 more by the year's end.
Lewis's team looked back to the beginning of the space age, when the Soviet Union launched Sputnik 1 in 1957, to analyze how cluttered space has become since then and how much more so it is likely to be in future.
While the number of close encounters - defined as objects passing within 5 kilometers of each other - is set to rise sharply, Lewis said the main effect would not necessarily be an increase in crashes, but in the number and cost of steps to avoid them. His study estimated that satellite operators will have to make five times as many collision avoidance moves in 2059 as they will in 2019.
Lewis was unable to put a price on avoidance steps, but said they'd have to be high priorities in future space budgets.
Space junk - or "orbital debris" - can take many forms, ranging from used-up parts and defunct satellites, to fragments of space vehicles, particles from explosions and even flakes of paint and dust.
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