Study: Habitat loss doubles coastal flood impact
Source: AFP |
July 16, 2013, Tuesday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
REMOVING mangroves, marshes, reefs, forests, dunes and other natural defenses doubles the risk for life and property from coastal floods, according to a US climate study.
In the most detailed analysis of the risks facing Americans from rising seas, researchers led by Katie Arkema at Stanford University in California built a computer model of coasts in the continental US.
The huge program factored in population statistics, residential property values, natural defenses and flooding probability on a scale of one square kilometer.
"Today, 16 percent of the coastline in the United States comprises 'high hazard' areas harboring 1.3 million people, (including) 250,000 elderly (and) 30,000 families below the poverty line, and US$300 billion in residential property value," the study said.
This estimate is for current sea levels and for the current state of natural buffers against floods.
Strip away this protection in order to build on the land, and the number of people and the value of property at high risk roughly doubles.
"At present habitats protect 67 percent of the coastline," said the study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
"Habitat loss would double the extent of coastline highly exposed... and the number of poor families, elderly people and total property highly exposed to hazards would also double."
In addition, rising seas caused by global warming will drive up exposure, the study warned.
The team calculated what would happen under a common scenario for warming, known as A2, under which Earth's average surface temperature would rise by 2.0-5.4 degrees Celsius this century.
Around 2 million people, and property worth some US$500 billion, would be in "high hazard" areas - a red line that stretches around most of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and parts of San Francisco Bay.
That exposure would almost double if habitat defenses are removed, because more people inland are placed at risk.
In the most detailed analysis of the risks facing Americans from rising seas, researchers led by Katie Arkema at Stanford University in California built a computer model of coasts in the continental US.
The huge program factored in population statistics, residential property values, natural defenses and flooding probability on a scale of one square kilometer.
"Today, 16 percent of the coastline in the United States comprises 'high hazard' areas harboring 1.3 million people, (including) 250,000 elderly (and) 30,000 families below the poverty line, and US$300 billion in residential property value," the study said.
This estimate is for current sea levels and for the current state of natural buffers against floods.
Strip away this protection in order to build on the land, and the number of people and the value of property at high risk roughly doubles.
"At present habitats protect 67 percent of the coastline," said the study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
"Habitat loss would double the extent of coastline highly exposed... and the number of poor families, elderly people and total property highly exposed to hazards would also double."
In addition, rising seas caused by global warming will drive up exposure, the study warned.
The team calculated what would happen under a common scenario for warming, known as A2, under which Earth's average surface temperature would rise by 2.0-5.4 degrees Celsius this century.
Around 2 million people, and property worth some US$500 billion, would be in "high hazard" areas - a red line that stretches around most of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and parts of San Francisco Bay.
That exposure would almost double if habitat defenses are removed, because more people inland are placed at risk.
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