TV debate victory may not revive Scots Yes vote
Print Edition
A convincing win by Scotland’s pro-independence leader Alex Salmond in a final TV debate ahead of next month’s breakaway referendum might not be enough to revive his campaign’s chances of victory, a snap poll suggested.
In Monday’s bruising encounter ahead of the September 18 ballot, Salmond relentlessly talked over Alistair Darling, head of the “Better Together” camp, arguing Scotland would be wealthier, freer and better governed if it went it alone.
With the campaign to break up the United Kingdom and sever Scotland’s 307-year union with England trailing in opinion polls by an average of up to 14 percentage points, Salmond’s supporters were hoping for a game-changing performance.
A snap Guardian/ICM poll showed 71 percent of 505 people in Scotland who watched the debate judged that he had won.
However, the same survey suggested this would not alter the outcome of the referendum, with the number of people who said they would vote “yes” (49 percent) and “no” (51 percent) remaining unchanged despite Salmond’s strong performance.
Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University, a polling expert, said it was far from certain that the nationalist leader’s victory would translate into a win at the ballot box.
“While Salmond was the obvious winner, it doesn’t seem to have moved votes at this stage,” he said.
If Scotland, with its US$250-billion economy, 5.2 million people, oil industry, and nuclear submarine base, leaves Britain, with its US$2.5 trillion economy and 63 million people, the consequences would be profound.
Britain’s three main political parties want it to stay in the union, which includes England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Scotland’s press, parts of which have traditionally been hostile to Salmond, recognized his debate win. “Salmond Bounces Back,” said the Daily Record, the second best-selling newspaper, while the top-selling Sun said Darling had been “smoked”.
Several recent polls have shown support for independence pushing higher, but the most recent “poll of polls”, on August 15, which was based on an average of the last six polls and excluded undecided respondents, found support for a breakaway stood at 43 percent against 57 percent for remaining within Britain.
During the debate, Salmond urged voters to grab “with both hands” what he termed an opportunity that might never repeat itself.
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