US homicide rates plunge despite the recession
Source: Agencies |
January 8, 2010, Friday
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Print Edition
Print Edition
LAW enforcement agencies in the United States are reporting a surprising drop in crime last year, with homicide rates in some major cities plunging to levels not seen in four decades.
The FBI's latest nationwide figures show that violent crime for the US as a whole declined by 4.4 percent in the first half of 2009, compared with the first half of 2008, led by a 10 percent drop in murders.
Falling crime in urban centers such as New York, Chicago, Dallas and Los Angeles, coinciding with the worst economic slump since the 1930s, is challenging theories linking lawlessness to joblessness.
Experts say much of the credit for lower crime likely goes to proactive law enforcement strategies in which police quickly boost their presence in selected urban areas to deter would-be bad guys, using real-time analysis of street intelligence.
But they also say the recession, contrary to conventional wisdom, could mute crime as rising unemployment keeps more people at home, where they are more apt to avoid trouble and look out for others as community guardians.
"If they are at home, that means more eyes on the street, and more eyes on neighbors' property," said Richard Rosenfeld, a criminology professor at the University of Missouri, St Louis, and president of the American Society of Criminology.
With less income at their disposal, people also venture out less frequently to nightspots, leaving them less likely to engage in criminal behavior or to become victims of crime, he added.
"What we're seeing now represents something of a break in pattern from the historical connection between crime increases and economic downturns," Rosenfeld said.
Year-end statistics from the largest US cities defy the predictions of many police commanders that a crime wave would be unleashed by the recession, rising home foreclosures and social despair.
In New York City, the nation's biggest metropolis, the murder rate plunged to its lowest level since the city began gathering comparable data in the early 1960s.
Crime overall was down about 11 percent in New York and off 12 percent in Chicago. The number of murders in Dallas fell to its lowest level since 1967.
Los Angeles posted its lowest crime rate in about 50 years. Homicides alone dropped by 18 percent.
The FBI's latest nationwide figures show that violent crime for the US as a whole declined by 4.4 percent in the first half of 2009, compared with the first half of 2008, led by a 10 percent drop in murders.
Falling crime in urban centers such as New York, Chicago, Dallas and Los Angeles, coinciding with the worst economic slump since the 1930s, is challenging theories linking lawlessness to joblessness.
Experts say much of the credit for lower crime likely goes to proactive law enforcement strategies in which police quickly boost their presence in selected urban areas to deter would-be bad guys, using real-time analysis of street intelligence.
But they also say the recession, contrary to conventional wisdom, could mute crime as rising unemployment keeps more people at home, where they are more apt to avoid trouble and look out for others as community guardians.
"If they are at home, that means more eyes on the street, and more eyes on neighbors' property," said Richard Rosenfeld, a criminology professor at the University of Missouri, St Louis, and president of the American Society of Criminology.
With less income at their disposal, people also venture out less frequently to nightspots, leaving them less likely to engage in criminal behavior or to become victims of crime, he added.
"What we're seeing now represents something of a break in pattern from the historical connection between crime increases and economic downturns," Rosenfeld said.
Year-end statistics from the largest US cities defy the predictions of many police commanders that a crime wave would be unleashed by the recession, rising home foreclosures and social despair.
In New York City, the nation's biggest metropolis, the murder rate plunged to its lowest level since the city began gathering comparable data in the early 1960s.
Crime overall was down about 11 percent in New York and off 12 percent in Chicago. The number of murders in Dallas fell to its lowest level since 1967.
Los Angeles posted its lowest crime rate in about 50 years. Homicides alone dropped by 18 percent.
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