A testing road ahead. Will robot taxies drive the future?
FROM the spinning jenny to steam engines, from telephones to airplanes, every new leap forward in technology in the past 200 years has initially been greeted with some skepticism, if not trepidation.
The current emergence of driverless taxis is certainly no exception.
While promising to revolutionize urban transport with greater efficiency and lower costs, these robotic vehicles face some challenges, including safety and reliability, and they threaten to displace millions of people who make their living behind the wheel.
Baidu’s Apollo Go, also known as “Go Carrot” in Chinese, has a fleet of some 400 driverless taxis and has reported explosive growth in people wanting to hire them since its citywide 24/7 operation began nationally in March.
Some vehicles complete more than 20 rides a day, matching the average daily workload of a human taxi driver. User satisfaction is also high. The Apollo Go app receives an average rating of 4.9 out of 5.
Investors, too, seem awed by the new technology. Last week, Baidu shares listed on the Nasdaq in New York jumped as much as 8.5 percent, and the stock soared 13 percent on the Hong Kong Exchange, fueled by investor interest in its Apollo Go robotaxi service in China.
General public opinion, however, remains mixed. Critics voice concerns about job displacement, insufficient regulation and safety issues.
Malfunctions and the lack of a driver make some passengers feel uneasy. There have been instances of traffic jams caused by autonomous vehicles unable to yield to each other.
Still, overall sentiment leans toward optimism. They point to the robotaxis’ cleaner interiors, customized music, consistent air conditioning and absence of the sometimes awkward need to converse with drivers.
“The robotaxi is so much cheaper,” Chen Li, a Wuhan resident, shared on the social media platform Red. “I took a 15-kilometer ride for just 7.2 yuan (99 US cents). It’s slow sometimes, but I don’t mind. It’s safe, and I save a lot of money.”
Booking an Apollo Go via an app is similar to the procedure on any mainstream ride-hailing service.
The front passenger seat of a robotaxi is off-limits. They are separated from the front seat by a transparent partition to prevent any interference with the driving controls.
Screens behind the front seats display the route, allow temperature control and music selection.
Apollo Go in Wuhan offers two options: autonomous cars with a safety driver and fully driverless cars. The driver in the manned vehicles is there for emergencies.
Baidu’s first-quarter financial statement shows fully driverless orders now exceed 70 percent, with expectations of it reaching 100 percent in coming quarters.
The company predicts Apollo Go will break even in Wuhan by the end of 2024 and become profitable by 2025, the first such service to provide a specific profitability timeline.
Nationwide, Apollo Go now operates test taxi services in 11 cities, including fully driverless cars in Beijing, Wuhan, Chongqing, Shenzhen and Shanghai.
According to Baidu data as of April 19, Apollo Go had provided over 6 million rides nationwide.
Regular taxi drivers are understandably alarmed.
China has over 7 million registered ride-hailing drivers and nearly 3 million regular taxi drivers.
“Driving a taxi was never easy, but it was honest work,” said Li Wei, 45, who has been a taxi driver in Wuhan for the past 15 years. “I could support my family, send my kids to school and pay the bills. But now, things are changing so fast.”
Li said his daily earnings have dropped sharply.
“Before, I could make around 300 yuan a day, sometimes more on busy days,” he explained. “Now, I’m lucky if I bring home 200 yuan. It could become less with the coming of robot taxis.”
Many of his counterparts share similar tales of woe on a WeChat group of over 200 ride-hailing drivers nationwide.
“We can’t compete with them,” a driver from Shandong Province told Shanghai Daily. “Robotaxis don’t need breaks, they don’t get tired and they don’t have families to feed. How are we supposed to survive?”
Experts in the field caution that autonomous driving technology still faces hurdles.
Zhang Xiaorong, director of the Deep Technology Research Institute, noted that handling complex road conditions and extreme weather remains a challenge for autonomous vehicles.
He said replacing human drivers entirely will take more time and technological improvements.
In a July 7 accident, a driverless Apollo Go taxi was tardy in response and hit a pedestrian crossing against a red light on a Wuhan street.
Wuhan residents have reported issues online, including driverless taxis stalling at green lights, entering intersections on red lights and hesitating when turning, leading to traffic jams.
He Xiaopeng, chairman of Guangzhou-based XPeng Motors, said on July 11 that though the robotaxi trend is hot now, it’s clear that capabilities, regulations and business models need more fine-tuning.
Apart from Baidu, other companies are also investing heavily in robotaxis.
Pony.ai has developed the necessary technology for large-scale commercialization of autonomous vehicles and plans to operate in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
The ride-hailing company Ruqi Mobility has included robotaxi services in its IPOs, aiming to use the proceeds to develop autonomous driving technology. T3 Mobility CEO Cui Dayong predicts widespread robotaxi commercialization within five years, citing potential cost reductions as key.
China is also exploring autonomous applications in freight transport, delivery services, and street cleaning.
In Shanghai, autonomous trucks are being deployed to transport goods to and from ports.
In Beijing, Meituan’s autonomous delivery vehicles are becoming a common sight, handling thousands of deliveries daily.
Shenzhen is testing autonomous street cleaning vehicles, aiming to reduce labor costs and improve urban cleanliness.
Gu Dasong, executive director of the Traffic Law and Development Research Center at Southeast University, stressed the importance of balancing technological progress with social equity.
The transition to autonomous vehicles should consider the impact on existing drivers and should be accompanied by transparent and serious regulation, he told The Paper, a leading digital media outlet based in Shanghai.
He cited Britain’s Locomotive Act of 1865, which mandated that every motor vehicle on public roads had to be manned by three individuals. One of them was required to walk in front of the vehicle, waving a red flag to warn others of its approach.
Baidu Vice President Wang Yunpeng said the original intention of developing driverless cars was not to compete with human drivers, but rather to offer a new mode of transportation that better serves the public.
But for taxi drivers like Li, the road ahead looks grim.
“I just want to make a living and take care of my family,” he said. “But it’s getting harder and harder. I hope there’s a way for us to co-exist with this new technology.”
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