Expert tips April-end for outbreak control
Print Edition
CHINA is confident that the novel coronavirus outbreak will be brought under control by the end of April, Zhong Nanshan, the head of the country’s high-level experts’ team on the epidemic, said yesterday. He clarified that “under control” means everything will be back on track by that time.
Addressing a media conference in Guangzhou, Zhong, one of China’s top respiratory experts, also claimed that the virus might not have originated in China.
His team previously predicted the peak of the epidemic in China to arrive in mid to late February. He said, as expected, the number of people infected has been declining. “And we are confident that it will be largely contained (in China) by the end of April.”
At the start of the outbreak, a study published in Lancet, a medical journal, predicted that the number of infected cases in China would reach 160,000 by early February based on a traditional research model, and that the situation could be controlled by the end of May, he revealed.
Zhong pointed out that the predictions did not take into account some critical factors, such as the powerful prevention and control measures taken by the Chinese government.
As of Wednesday, a total of 78,630 infected cases had been confirmed in China. Zhong said the development trend is in line with his team’s forecast.
He said their estimate is based on the scientific model plus two strong influencing factors: the vigorous measures taken by China and the possible travel rush after the Spring Festival holiday.
Although the infection was spotted in China, the virus might not have originated here, as many other countries are also reporting cases, Zhong claimed.
He said his team made the forecast based on the situation in China. Now the developments in other countries need to be taken into consideration separately.
He added that the source of the virus and whether it had existed before remains unclear, stating that the pangolin might not be its only intermediate host.
Zhong disclosed that he will give a video presentation to the European Respiratory Society this weekend at its request to shed light on China’s experience.
“It is a disease of humans, not of a country. We need more international cooperation.
“This morning I found that the number of new cases in China was less than those abroad.
“South Korea, Iran and Italy are facing a quick increase in the number of new confirmed cases. The steps China has taken may give them some inspiration.”
Under a strict mechanism of mass prevention and control, China has seen a rapid decline in new cases of the coronavirus. The mechanism is rare, and countries with rapid spread of the virus can refer to China’s approach, Zhong suggested. The key is to ensure early detection and quarantine of infected cases.
On average, one novel coronavirus patient can usually infect two to three others, which means it spreads very fast, he added.
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